About Us

Jim Zitek
Investment Advisor, Professional Speaker, Writer on the Economy and Markets

Presentations:
Critical thinking skills help you make better decisions

1. Where Does The Economy Go From Here?

Today’s economy and markets are fundamentally different than those of the past. Expanding government interference in the economy has slowly changed our economy from a market based, entrepreneurial economy to one that is Centrally Planned. Economic polices today are directed by politicians and lobbyists in Washington, DC rather than by manufacturers and the individuals who buy their products.

The Great Yellowstone Fire of 1988 illustrates how a centrally planned, well-intentioned policy can often result in the opposite of what was intended. The National Park Service’s Fire Management Policy was to suppress all fires as quickly as possible. That policy began to change in the late 1960’s but by that time the forest was very mature and a significant fire hazard. A crisis was imminent.

In June of 1988, lightning ignited a fire that quickly grew out of control and spread to many different parts of the forest. The fire burned for months even though 9,000 fire fighters and 4,000 military personal were used. The fire was eventually extinguished in late fall by rains and snow. About 73,000 acres or 36% of the park was affected and fighting it cost $220 million in today’s dollars.

How could this happen?

The Great Yellowstone Fire started by Washington DC politicians taking control of fire management policy away from the day-to-day people working in the field and instead relied on “scholars” and lobbyists to determine the “correct” policy.

Once that policy was in place, the central planners would not listen to the scholars and forest rangers that advocated the opposite (and natural) view; that fires served a beneficial role. They cleaned out the understory and dead plant matter, helped fertilized the sold and allowed new tree species and plants to grow.
After years of pursuing the same “unnatural” policy, the real problem grew until it became a potential catastrophe. When lightning struck that June day and the forest began to burn out of control, the central planners in Washington DC were surprised that they could not control the fire quickly or that the damage could be so devastating. And the final irony is that fall rains and snow eventually extinguished the fire.

This same scenario is happening today in our economy

The process of restricting entrepreneurship and bringing economic policy decisions to Washington DC has been happening to America’s economy over many decades and those efforts have has intensified lately. The value of entrepreneurs who take risks based on their knowledge and their view of the future are being ignored in favor of central planners. Just look at the constant calls for government to “do something” – to solve the debt crisis, to create jobs, to invest in green energy, to fix the housing problem.

Unfortunately, our central planners are focused on one major strategy and that is to solve every problem by spending more money, often on the symptom rather than the cause of the problem, and having the Federal Reserve print money as needed. This doesn’t work. Its been proved over and over again. A few elite planners cannot know what products and at what prices 320 million people want or need.

These central planners are making economic decisions based on political concerns and personal agendas. As a result, they interfere with the economy based upon political expediency, not fundamental economic reasoning. Their political concerns create a paradigm of decisions that are naturally shortsighted, and they generally get fiscal and monetary policy wrong. Plus, the hubris and power of the central planners means they can never admit they were wrong, which leads to more interference, more short-sighted decisions and more damaging fiscal and monetary policy decisions. The Central planners are leading us to the edge of disaster.

Using this policy, politicians have borrowed over $15 trillion dollars, a third of that in the last three years and have current plans to continue borrowing at a rate of over $3 billion per day. Our debt is now over 100% of our GDP, over 5 times our revenues and interest expense is about 10% of the government’s revenues. These are unsustainable levels and must be dealt with before we have a financial catastrophe.

Our centrally planned economy may be headed for the same kind of fate. Consequently, we must change the way we look at the economy and how we interpret economic data.This presentation, “Where Does The Economy Go From Here” does exactly that. It:

1. Explains how this transformation to central planning impacts the economy and markets.

2. Why the consensus view of the economy is often misleading.

3. What you must know about the key issues that will affect the performance of the economy and markets in the coming years – including the debt crisis, inflation, housing, employment and economic growth.

It is not about happy talk or doom; and it’s not the traditional rehash of consensus numbers and predictions. It’s different because it’s about reality. It’s about understanding where the economy is now and where its headed in the future so each attendee can define a strategy ahead of events that impact the market and not be forced to suddenly react to events that usually “surprise” the central planners.

2. Help. The News Is Driving Me Crazy!

Are you almost afraid to turn on the news or pick up a newspaper? It seems there's a new crisis (credit, housing, jobs, environment, deficits, etc.) everyday that we have to understand and deal with. Yet in this crazy, upside-down world, we are still required to make important business and personal decisions, often without the necessary information

My presentation, "Help. The News Is Driving Me Crazy!" shows you how the media, our major source of information, tells its stories. Explains why and how these stories are filled with biases, are sensationalized and often misleading and inaccurate.

This presentation shows you how to:

Tear a story apart, analyze its parts and then put the story back together in a more meaningful way,

How to build the breath and depth of information you need to really understand the problem or opportunity at hand.

How to focus on the critical information you need to close the information gap-- to go from what you know now to what you need to know-- so you can make decisions in a timely manner.

There are no prerequisites. One is not born a good decision maker. Decision-making is a learned skill. In these turbulent times, critical thinking and decision-making skills are invaluable. They can help you capitalize on opportunities and avoid costly problems.

The presentation is fast paced and laced with humor. It is also packed with content and is appropriate for everyone from a new hire, to a collaborative team to top management.

Depending on audience size, this presentation can be interactive using my audience response system to get feedback and direction from the audience.

3. Real Stories. No Sound Bites. No Headlines.

Teaser headlines may get you to a story; but once there, you may be disappointed. When you need information about an issue, you need the complete story, in context and you need to understand the reasons for and against each argument.

This presentation, “Real Stories. No Sound Bites. No Headlines.” discusses a variety of current, relevant issues. Using our ClearVision Scenarios TM methodology, we focus more in depth (five to ten minutes) on a limited number of issues rather than a broad number of issues affecting the direction of the economy or markets. For example: what drives economic growth (GDP), housing, employment, oil prices, or inflation.

The audience may not hear their version of the story, but they will hear a hard-edged, objective overview of the selected issues that will give them a new perspective and a better understanding of each issue.

If you would like more information about any of these presentations, for date availability or if you would like to book a presentation for one of your events, call Jim Zitek at 612-424-5335 or e-mail jim@zitek.net

America's Daunting Long-Term Fiscal Challenge

This is a 20 to 30 minute presentation that illustrates the problems of current U.S. fiscal policy which is generating huge budget deficits; and where these deficits are headed if nothing is changed. This is followed by a discussion about what can be done to discretionary and nondiscretionary programs and budgets to change this trend.   Long-term, if we do nothing, the U.S. could be facing a fiscal calamity. We need to get federal spending and revenues into balance. At the end of the program, I have five questions that I hope each member of the audience will ask their candidate in the upcoming election. This presentation and the questions are non-partisan. The questions are for all parties. We need solutions not politics

Jim Zitek is member of the speaker's bureau of the Concord Coalition Organization. The Concord Coalition is a Washington D.C. based, non-profit, non-partisan organization advocating responsible fiscal policy. It was started by Warren Rudman (R-NH) and Paul Tsongas (D-Mass). More information about the Concord Coalition is available at: www.concordcoalition.org

Here are some examples of recent issues discussed: Where are oil prices headed? Are we moving toward inflation or deflation? Will the economic recovery be V shaped or L shaped? When will housing bottom and turn up? How big a problem is our current debt? When will consumers start spending again? Are U.S. Treasuries the next bubble? Are we solving the credit crisis? Will globalization be allowed to continue?